Conclusion
The Timing of Climate Change Policy
Conclusions
The scientific community has arrived at a consensus that human activities are driving dramatic changes in our planet's climate. This naturally raises the question of when we should begin to respond to this challenge. Some have argued that society, given the uncertainties and costs associated with climate change, would best be served by relying on voluntary measures to reduce GHG emissions while waiting until more is known regarding the science and economics of climate change.
However, as the scientific literature makes clear, we do not need to know more in order to conclude with confidence that the trend towards a warmer global climate is real. Waiting to take action to reduce GHG emissions ignores the strong scientific evidence that GHG concentrations in the atmosphere will soon exceed a doubling of their pre-industrial levels. We currently have limited abilities to predict the specific, long-term consequences that these escalating GHG concentrations will have on the earth's climate as well as the related effects they will have on economic activity, human health and quality of life, biodiversity, and many other areas. However, a number of trends, such as the inundation of low-lying areas, a pole- ward shift in agricultural production, and a general reduction in biodiversity, can be predicted with confidence. Moreover, economists understand that a strategy of delaying direct action and relying on laboratory science alone cannot produce the broad-based experimentation and learning that in the past has led to technological progress.
Establishing a clear path for emissions reductions would begin the process of a timely and efficient response to the climate challenge. It would lead the private sector into a long-term transition towards a low-GHG economy, inducing technological progress and wide-scale experimentation. Such action would allow us to learn as we gather experience with implementing climate change policy, and would give future generations the tools to manage the problem without insurmountable burdens.
In short, the argument that delay is the best strategy for addressing global climate change runs counter to what we understand about technology, the economy, and climate science itself. It risks allowing significant escalation of the problem while providing little in the way of momentum towards a long-term solution. In contrast, moving forward with a real and rational program to reduce GHGs allows us to address this challenge in a way that is timely, consistent, meaningful, and cost-effective. Our response to the challenge of global climate change should begin now.
1 IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
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2 The Pew Center Workshop on the Timing of Climate Change Policies, held at The Westin Grand Hotel in Washington, D.C. October 11-12, 2001. View the summary of proceedings.
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3 Mahlman, Jerry D. "The Long Time Scales of Human-Caused Climate Warming: Further Challenges for the Global Policy Process." Presented at The Pew Center Workshop on the Timing of Climate Change Policies. The Westin Grand Hotel, Washington, D.C. October 11-12, 2001. Available in PDF format.
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4 Azar, Christian and Stephen H. Schneider. "Are Uncertainties in Climate and Energy Systems a Justification for Stronger Near-term Mitigation Policies?" Presented at The Pew Center Workshop on the Timing of Climate Change Policies. The Westin Grand Hotel, Washington, D.C. October 11-12, 2001. Available in PDF format.
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5 IPCC. 2001.
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6 Weyant, John P. 2001. "Economic Models: How They Work & Why Their Results Differ." In Climate Change: Science, Strategies, & Solutions. Eileen Claussen, Vicki Arroyo Cochran, and Debra Davis, (eds.). The Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Brill Academic Press, Leiden, pp. 193-208.
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7 Such trading is found in virtually all analyses to limit dramatically the cost of abating carbon emissions. See Edmonds, Jae, Michael Scott, Joseph M. Roop, and Chris MacCracken. 2001. "International Emissions Trading." In Climate Change: Science, Strategies, & Solutions. Eileen Claussen, Vicki Arroyo Cochran, and Debra Davis, (eds.). The Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Brill Academic Press, Leiden, pp. 245-268.
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8 Fisher, Anthony. "Uncertainty, Irreversibility, and the Timing of Climate Policy." Presented at The Pew Center Workshop on the Timing of Climate Change Policies. The Westin Grand Hotel, Washington, D.C. October 11-12, 2001. Available in PDF format.
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9 Aldy, Joseph E., Peter R. Orszag, and Joseph E. Stiglitz. 2001. "Climate Change: An Agenda for Global Collective Action." Prepared for The Pew Center Workshop on the Timing of Climate Change Policies. The Westin Grand Hotel, Washington, D.C. October 11-12, 2001. Available in PDF format.
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10 Goulder, Larry. 2001. "Induced Technological Change and Climate Policy." Presented at The Pew Center Workshop on the Timing of Climate Change Policies. The Westin Grand Hotel, Washington, D.C. October 11-12, 2001.
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11 Newell, Richard, and William Pizer. 2001. "Discounting the Benefits of Future Climate Change Mitigation: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?" The Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Arlington, VA.
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12 Aldy et al., p. 13.
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13 Edmonds, Jae, M. Wise, and J. Dooley. 1997. "Atmospheric Stabilization and the Role of Energy Technology," in Climate Change Policy, Risk Prioritization and U.S. Economic Growth. C.E. Walker, M.A. Bloomfield, and M. Thorning (eds.). American Council for Capital Formation, Washington D.C., pp. 71-94.
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14 Alic, John A. and David C. Mowery. Forthcoming, 2002. "U.S. Technology and Innovation Policies: Lessons for Climate Change." The Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Arlington, VA.
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15 Azar and Schneider, p. 29.
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16 Azar and Schneider, p. 29.
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17 Margolick, Michael, and Doug Russell. 2001. "Corporate Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets." The Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Arlington, VA.
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18 Shorey, Everett, and Tom Eckman. 2000. "Appliances and Global Climate Change." The Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Arlington, VA.
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