The Outlook Toward Copenhagen

September 2009

With the Copenhagen climate conference just three months away, governments are engaged in near-continuous talks within and outside the formal UN negotiating process in hopes of achieving at least an interim deal on a post-2012 international framework.

Little progress was seen in the latest round of UN talks held August 10-14 in Bonn.  In negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which include the United States, parties began trying to whittle down a cumbersome 200-page negotiating text, but remained far apart on key issues.  China and India, reacting to proposals in the U.S. Congress for trade sanctions against countries not controlling their emissions, tabled proposals to prohibit the use of unilateral trade measures.

In parallel negotiations under the Kyoto Protocol, all developed countries (except the United States, which is not a Kyoto party) have now made initial proposals for their post-2012 emission targets.  Collectively, according to the UNFCCC Secretariat, these amount to a reduction of 16 to 21 percent below 1990 levels.  Final numbers are unlikely, however, without agreement on rules for emissions trading and accounting of land use emissions, and without clarity on commitments by the United States and major developing countries.  Further UNFCCC talks leading up to Copenhagen (December 7-18) are set for September 28-October 9 in Bangkok, and November 2-6 in Barcelona.

Alongside the UN negotiations, a rapid series of high-level talks are planned: 

• Leaders’ representatives gather September 17-18 in Washington for a meeting of the U.S.-led Major Economies Forum;
• Ministers from key countries meet September 19-20 in New York in an informal dialogue convened by Denmark, host of the upcoming Copenhagen conference;
• Heads of State  participate September 22 in  a summit on climate change convened in the New York by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon; and
• Leaders of the G-20 countries will consider steps on climate finance, a critical issue in the UN negotiations, when they meet September 24-25 in Pittsburgh.

While many are hopeful the high-level talks will produce breakthroughs, the growing view is that a full and final outcome is unlikely in Copenhagen, and the aim should be a strong interim deal, with negotiations continuing next year toward a final agreement.

Read more about a Copenhagen agreement.